Liu, X., Y. Li, M. Guasch-Ferre, W.C. Willett, J.-P. Drouin-Chartier, S.N. Bhupathiraju, D.K. Tobias, 2019. Changes in nut consumption influence long-term weight change in US men and women. bmjnph 2019;0:1–10. doi:10.1136/bmjnph-2019-000034.
Background: Nut consumption has increased in the US but little evidence exists on the association between changes in nut consumption and weight change. We aimed to evaluate the association between changes in total consumption of nuts and intakes of different nuts (including peanuts) and long-term weight change, in three independent cohort studies. Methods and Findings: Data collected in three prospective, longitudinal cohorts among health professionals in the US were analysed. We included 27, 521 men (Health Professionals Follow-up Study, 1986 to 2010), 61,680 women (Nurses’ Health Study, 1986 to 2010), and 55,684 younger women (Nurses’ Health Study II, 1991 to 2011) who were free of chronic disease at baseline in the analyses. We investigated the association between changes in nut consumption over 4-year intervals and concurrent weight change over 20–24 years of follow-up using multivariate linear models with an unstructured correlation matrix to account for within-individual repeated measures. 21,322 individuals attained a body mass index classification of obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) at the end of follow-up. Average weight gain across the three cohorts was 0.32 kg each year. Increases in nut consumption, per 0.5 servings/ day (14 g), was significantly associated with less weight gain per 4-year interval (p<0.01 for all): −0.19 kg (95% CI -0.21 to -0.17) for total consumption of nuts, -0.37 kg (95% CI -0.45 to -0.30) for walnuts, -0.36 kg (95% CI -0.40 to -0.31) for other tree nuts, and -0.15 kg (95% CI -0.19 to -0.11) for peanuts. Increasing intakes of nuts, walnuts, and other tree nuts by 0.5 servings/day was associated with a lower risk of obesity. The multivariable adjusted RR for total nuts, walnuts, and other tree nuts was 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.99, p=0.0036), 0.85 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.89, p=0.0002), and 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91, p<0.0001), respectively. Increasing nut consumption was also associated with a lower risk of gaining ≥2 kg or ≥5 kg (RR 0.89–0.98, p<0.01 for all). In substitution analyses, substituting 0.5 servings/day of nuts for red meat, processed meat, French fries, desserts, or potato, chips (crisps) was associated with less weight gain (p<0.05 for all). Our cohorts were largely composed of Caucasian health professionals with relatively higher socioeconomic status; thus the results may not be generalisable to other populations. Conclusion: Increasing daily consumption of nuts is associated with less long-term weight gain and a lower risk of obesity in adults. Replacing 0.5 servings/day of less healthful foods with nuts may be a simple strategy to help prevent gradual long-term weight gain and obesity.